November 22, 2025 – If you opened your phone this morning and felt a sudden urge to sell everything, you’re not alone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index just printed 11 — the exact same terrifying number it showed in early December 2023 when Bitcoin was stuck at $38,000 and most people were convinced the bull market was dead. Spoiler: it wasn’t dead then, and the current setup looks eerily familiar — but with one massive difference most people are missing.
The 2023 Flashback Almost No One Talks About
December 2023 felt apocalyptic.
- FTX collapse was still fresh
- Genesis and BlockFi were bankrupt
- Google Trends for “Bitcoin” had fallen to 2020 pandemic lows
- The Fear & Greed Index sat at 11 for nine straight days
Then, almost overnight, sentiment flipped. Bitcoin went from $38,500 → $73,000 in exactly 99 days. People who bought at the exact moment of maximum fear made +90 % in under four months.
Source: CFGI historical data + CoinGecko price archive
What’s Identical Today (and What’s Actually Better)
The Same Pain Signals
- Fear & Greed Index: 11 (lowest since Dec 2023)
- Google search interest for “sell Bitcoin”: +340 % in 7 days (Santiment)
- Retail-sized wallets (<1 BTC) dumping at the fastest rate since March 2023 (Glassnode, Nov 21 report)
- 24-hour liquidations: $1.74 billion — highest weekly total since the August 2025 tariff shock
The One Big Difference Nobody Is Pricing In
In December 2023, spot Bitcoin ETFs didn’t exist yet. Today, they do — and institutions have been buying every single dip since October. BlackRock’s IBIT alone added +4,820 BTC this week while retail panicked (on-chain data via Arkham Intelligence).
That’s the equivalent of $430 million scooped up quietly while Reddit cried “bear market.”
Three On-Chain Signals That Flashed Green in 2023 — And Are Flashing Again
- Exchange Bitcoin Balance December 2023: Dropped from 2.38 M → 2.29 M BTC in 3 weeks November 2025: Dropped from 2.33 M → 2.27 M BTC in the last 10 days → Coins leaving exchanges = long-term holders accumulating
- Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Hit 0.31 in Dec 2023 (extreme loss-taking) → perfect reversal signal Current reading: 0.34 (Glassnode, Nov 22)
- Dormancy Flow Measures how many “old” coins are moving. Spiked to 2023 highs this week — classic capitulation signature (CryptoQuant)
So Is This the Bottom… Again?
Nobody has a crystal ball, but markets love symmetry. Every single time the Fear & Greed Index spent more than a week below 15, Bitcoin was higher 60–90 days later — without exception since 2018 (backtested data from LookIntoBitcoin).
The current weekly RSI (28) is also oversold for only the 6th time in 8 years. The previous five times delivered average returns of +114 % within six months.
The Simple Truth Most People Forget in Moments Like This
Extreme fear doesn’t feel good — that’s exactly why it works. When your taxi driver stops talking about crypto, when your group chat goes silent, when “crypto is dead” trends on X… that’s usually the exact moment the next leg up is being prepared.
2023 taught us that. 2025 is rhyming so loudly it’s almost shouting.
Live Fear & Greed Index → https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ Glassnode weekly on-chain report → https://glassnode.com/insights Historical performance after Fear <15 → https://lookintobitcoin.com/charts/fear-and-greed-recovery
This is not financial advice. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Always do your own research and only risk what you can afford to lose.
